Laguna Beach Real Estate Videos and Reports 2016 to 2021

Note to mobile users:  all videos and reports can be accessed from a laptop or desktop computer.

Recent 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on the December 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Market

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on the August 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Market

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on the July 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Market

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on the June 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Market

December 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine

A Broker’s Take on the 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Market

 

The headline is WOW.  This is Boyd Roberts, broker of Laguna Gallery Real Estate with a special take on the 2021 Laguna Beach real estate market.  Stick with me to the end for my January and 2022 forecasts.

 

As I predicted December 7, 2021, prices were up huge.  The monthly median rose $1,145,000, finishing at a record $3,795,000.  For context that is up $2,320,000 from the April 2020 shut-down low.  The dollars per square foot surged 340 to 1,530. 

 

As I predicted November 7, 2020, the 2021 yearly median was up.  It rose $650,000 and finished at $2,650,000 – a 32% gain from 2020 and a 143% gain from 2011.  The dollars per square foot was up 194 and closed out the year at 1,239.

 

The listing crisis has worsened.  The January 1 print of active listings came in at a record low, 49.  For context that is down 30% in the last 30 days and 55% since September, when I first used the words “listing crisis.”  Dividing the number of actives, 49, by the December rate of sales, 36, the supply of homes is now at 1.3 months or just 41 days, a record.

 

Intersecting collapsing supply is overwhelming and surging demand, best illustrated by the 12-month moving volume of closed sales chart.  Demand is up 23% since January 2021 and up 64% since the Shutdown lows.

 

The closing ratio is going up.  The post Covid median closing ratio is up 17% from the pre Covid closing ratio.  Buyers are not messing around.

 

With 7 closings in December exceeding $10,000,000, the supply of luxury homes has now plunged to just 4 months.  For context that is down 94% since January 2021.  For the first time in the 6 years that I have been tracking the Laguna Beach real estate market, I can say:  all 6 market segments are now seller’s markets.

 

What is my forecast going forward?

 

With the January 1st pending median at $3,295,000 - $500,000 less than December’s sold median – the short-term Pending Indicator is forecasting that prices will be lower this month – 96% probability.  For context the Pending Indicator has issued 29 signals since February 2016.  28 of those signals have been correct.

 

With 568 closed sales in 2021, the long-term Price Indicator is forecasting that the 2022 sold median will be up from 2021 – 94% probability.  For context, since 1999 the Price Indicator has issued 17 signals.  16 have been correct.  The average move has been 12%.   

 

If you like this video, I invite you to like and subscribe to my channel on Youtube.  Just type “a broker’s take on the Laguna Beach real estate market” into the search bar.

 

If you like insightful Laguna Beach real estate charts, I invite you to visit my charts page at www.LagunaGalleryRealEstate.com.

 

If you are a buyer or seller and want to work with a broker who knows the Laguna Beach market, call me at 949-463-9152.  You will not regret it.

 

Do not forget Art Walk on Thursday.  Have an excellent 2022 and thank you for joining me.

August 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine p1.png

Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine Publisher, Boyd Roberts, August 2021:  LAGUNA TO RALLY THRU 2022                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               The sold median was up $92,000 while the $ per square foot fell $101 in August.  The supply of homes remained tight at just      under 2 months.  The supply of homes below $1,500,000  imploded to  under a quarter of one month.   Charts pages 5, 6, and 9.

Listing Crisis.  As of September 1st, the number of active listings came in at just 111 – the lowest print in my 5+ years tracking  Laguna Beach real estate.  The average of the last 5 September 1st prints is 257 listings.  Three things.  There were 56 closings in Laguna in    August.  There are 56 deals        currently in escrow.  Active inventory is cyclical.  It always declines from September 1st to January 1st.  In the last 5 years the average    decline was 82 active listings.  Charts page 6.

Two predictions.  First, the monthly median sold price will rise in September.  With the active median at $4,395,000 and the August sold median at $2,592,000 – a difference of $1,803,000 - it is a near certainty that September will be up (no guarantees).  In fact, every time in the past that this difference has exceeded $1,400,000, Laguna has always been up that month.  Chart page 5.

Second, the yearly median sold price for 2022 will be higher than 2021.  Since 1999 every year with 350, or more, closings has been followed by an up year (except for 2015).  Year-to-date we have already had 400 closings, so 2022 should be up.  Again, no guarantees.  Chart page 5.

Call me to take advantage of this market.

October 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine

Laguna At All Time High

Pierces $1,300 | Forecast Review      

As Predicted | Zillow Take Note  

 

As I predicted last month, Laguna Beach real estate prices were up.  Not only did the monthly, the 6-month, and the 12-month charts all post record prints, but it was pretty:  median $ per square foot pierced $1,300, days on market – already low – fell another 54%, and price reductions were down 33%.  (Charts pages 5 and 8).     

High demand and low supply drive any bull market.  October’s 12-month number of sales, 572, was near record levels and is 51% higher than the 5-year median.  The number of active listings, as of November 1st, plunged to 94 – a multiyear low and is 57% below the 5-year median.  (Charts pages 7 and 6.)  Until there is a down shift in demand, an up shift in supply, or a combination of these factors, expect current trends to continue.

Every month since February 2016 I have published/produced a full report and video, chronicling the Laguna Beach real estate market.  All my reports, videos, and charts are posted on my website. 

Over the years I have developed 3 highly accurate fore-

casting models:  two short-term and one long-term.  Every month I publish all current forecasts.  Last month the short-term Pending Indicator and Spread Indicators both predicted that October prices would rise.  Last month’s issue also included two outstanding long-term Price Indicator forecasts.  On November 1, 2020, I predicted 2021 prices would be up.  On September 1, 2021, I predicted 2022 would be up.

The short-term Pending Indicator was developed early in 2016.  It compares the pending median to the previous months’ sold median.  When the pending median diverges $250,000 plus or minus from the sold median the Pending Indicator projects an up or down price move for that month.  Since February 2016 the Pending Indicator has issued 28 total signals.  27 of those signals have been correct.  The average move in price has been 15.5%. 

The most significant Pending Indicator signal came on May 4, 2020, reporting on the April market.  In the previous month’s report - with the onset of the Covid 19 chaos - I had just turned bearish.  But with the April sold median at $1,475,000 and the May 1st pending median at $2,395,000 - a difference of $920,000 - I was forced to consider the bullish case.  The May 2020 sold median was up 54%, closing out at $2,277,000.

The short-term Spread Indicator was developed last year.  It compares the active median to the sold median.  When the spread between the active median and the previous month’s sold median exceeds $1,400,000 the sold median for the current month should go up.  When the spread is $800,000 or less, the price should go down that month.  Since February 2016 there have been 23 up and down signals.  21 have been correct.  The average move was 13.4%.

The long-term Price Indicator was developed early in 2016.  It is very simple.  Every year Laguna Beach exceeds 350 closings, the following year’s median sold price should be higher.  Since 1999 the Price Indicator has issued 16 up signals.  15 of those signals have been correct.  The average move in price was 10.6%.

Call me if you want to work with a broker who knows the Laguna Beach market.

June 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine p 1.png

Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine Publisher, Boyd Roberts, June 2021: 

 

Laguna Up $1.2M

Listings Plunge on Record Volume | Supply Implodes

Median Laguna Beach sold prices are up $521,000 year to date, $729,000 year over year, and $1,214,000 since the shutdown.  Chart page 6.

In terms of $ per square foot  (3-month) we are up 16% since December and 40% year over year.  Chart page 9.

The five-year median number of  active listings is 227.  Historically, the supply increases approximately 100 listings from January 1st into the summer months and declines 100 listings through the end of the year - except this last year.  We started 2021 with only 136 listings.  On July 1st when there are typically 250 to 300 active listings, we were at only 117 – a multiyear low.  Chart page 7.

The 5-year median number of monthly closings is 32.  June’s number was 64 closings, a multiyear high.  Chart page 8.

If you divide the July 1st number of active listings (117) by the June rate of sales (64) you can estimate the number of months (1.82) that it would take to sell all actively listed homes.  The 5-year median is 7.2 months.  Notice that the May 2020 supply was 13.2 months and has now collapsed by 86%.  How high does the price have to go before sellers list their home for sale?  Chart page 7. 

Specialty Reports:  $10,000,000+ Market | View Ordinance

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the March 2016 $10,000,000+ Market

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the December 2017

 $10,000,000+ Market

Laguna Beach Real Estate Special Report on Laguna Beach's $10,000,000+ Market December 2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the June 2018

 $10,000,000+ Market

Laguna Beach Real Estate Special Report on Laguna Beach's $10,000,000+ Market June 2018

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the August 2018

 $10,000,000+ Market

Laguna Beach Real Estate Special Report on Laguna Beach's $10,000,000+ Market August 2018

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the August 2018

 $5-10,000,000 Market

Laguna Beach Real Estate Special Report on Laguna Beach's $5-10,000,000 Market August 2018

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the March 2019

 $10,000,000+ Market

Laguna Beach Real Estate Special Report on Laguna Beach's $10,000,000+ Market March 2019

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the Laguna Beach  View Ordinance

Laguna Beach View Ordinance Special Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the August 2020

 $10,000,000+ Market

August 2020 Laguna Beach Real Estate Mag

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the September 2020

 $5-10,000,000 Market

September 2020 Laguna Beach Real Estate

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the June 2021

 $10,000,000+ Market

June 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine

Laguna Beach Real Estate Videos/Reports February 2016 to present

2016

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the February 2016  Market 

February 2016 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the March 2016  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report March 2016

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the April 2016  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report April 2016

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the May 2016  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report May 2016

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the June 2016  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report June 2016

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the July 2016  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report July 2016

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the August 2016  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report August 2016

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the September 2016  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report September 2016

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the October 2016  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report October 2016

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the November 2016  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report November 2016

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the December 2016  Market 

2016 in Review | 2017 Outlook

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report December 2016

2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the January 2017  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report January 2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the February 2017  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report February 2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the March 2017  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report March 2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the April 2017  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report April 2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the May 2017  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report May 2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the June 2017  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report June 2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the July 2017  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report July 2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the August 2017  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report August 2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the September 2017  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report September 2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the October 2017  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report October 2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the November 2017  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report November 2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the December 2017  Market 

2017 in Review | 2018 Outlook

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report December 2017

2018

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the  January 2018  Market 

January 2018 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the  February 2018  Market 

February 2018 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the  March 2018  Market 

March 2018 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the  April 2018  Market 

April 2018 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the May 2018  Market 

May 2018 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the June 2018  Market 

June 2018 Laguna Beach Real Estate Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the July 2018  Market 

July 2018 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the August 2018  Market 

August 2018 Laguna Beach Real Estate Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the September 2018  Market 

September 2018 Laguna Beach Real Estate Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the October 2018  Market 

October 2018 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the November 2018  Market 

November 2018 Laguna Beach Real Estate Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the December 2018  Market 

2018 in Review | 2019 Outlook

December 2018, 2018 in Review, 2019 Outlook Laguna Beach Real Estate Special Report

2019

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the January 2019  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report - January 2019

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the July 2019  Market 

July 2019 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the February 2019  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report - February 2019

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the August 2019  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report - August 2019

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the March 2019  Market 

March 2019 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the September 2019  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report - September 2019

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the April 2019  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report - April 2019

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the October 2019  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate October 2019 Sales Report [Edition #52]

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the May 2019  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report - May 2019

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the  November 2019  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate November 2019 Sales Report [Edition #53]

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the June 2019  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report - June 2019

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the December 2019  Market 

2019 in Review | 2020 Outlook

Laguna Beach Real Estate   December 2019 Sales Report 2019 Review | 2020 Outlook  [Edition #54]

2020

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the January 2020  Market 

January 2020 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report Edition 55

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the February 2020  Market 

February 2020 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales Report Edition 56

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the March 2020  Market 

March 2020 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the April 2020  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine April 2020

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the May 2020  Market 

May 2020 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the June 2020  Market 

June 2020 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the July 2020  Market 

July 2020 Laguna Beach Real Estate Sales

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the August 2020  Market 

August 2020 Laguna Beach Real Estate Mag

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the September 2020  Market 

September 2020 Laguna Beach Real Estate

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the October 2020  Market 

October 2020 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the November 2020  Market 

November 2020 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the December 2020  Market 

December 2020 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine

2021

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the January 2021  Market 

January 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Ma

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the February 2021  Market 

February 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate M

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the March 2021  Market 

March 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Maga

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the April 2021  Market 

April 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Maga

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the May 2021  Market 

May 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine p1.png

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the June 2021  Market 

June 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the July 2021  Market 

July 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine

Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine Publisher, Boyd Roberts, July 2021: 

Historic Parabolic Move    

May 5, 2020, well into the shutdown, you heard it here first.  Reporting on what turned out to be the exact low (in my April 2020 Broker’s Take on the April 2020 market), this rapporteur said, “with the pending median $920,000 higher than April’s print prices should rally soon.”  Then 4 months later on September 17th I said, “if Laguna Beach real estate was a stock, I would say it is about to go parabolic.”

Evidenced by the 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, and yearly price charts – starting on page 5 – that is exactly what happened. 

What now?  And is this parabolic move different?

I will never forget the 1989 spike and the subsequent crash the following year.  Classic manic buying was followed by a cacophony of economic dislocations the next year:  interest rates between 12 and 14%, the Savings and Loan Crisis, and a recession.  The market did not start going up again until 1997.

Then in 2007 – after appreciating two-fold - the mortgage market seized up and we had the sharpest economic implosion since the 1930s.  Not surprisingly, prices crashed again.

I am not saying this time is different, but the foundation of this 2021 market is solid:  we did just come out of a mini depression, the government is throwing trillions of dollars into the economy, mortgage underwriting is solid, and mortgage rates are well below 3%. 

No matter your outlook, call me for all your real estate needs.  Stay safe and have an excellent August.

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the August 2021  Market 

August 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine page 1

Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine, August 2021

                                            LAGUNA TO RALLY THRU 2022

   

The sold median was up $92,000 while the $ per square foot fell $101 in August.  The supply of homes remained tight at just      under 2 months.  The supply of homes below $1,500,000  imploded to  under a quarter of one month.   Charts pages 5, 6, and 9.

Listing Crisis.  As of September 1st, the number of active listings came in at just 111 – the lowest print in my 5+ years tracking  Laguna Beach real estate.  The average of the last 5 September 1st prints is 257 listings.  Three things.  There were 56 closings in Laguna in    August.  There are 56 deals        currently in escrow.  Active inventory is cyclical.  It always declines from September 1st to January 1st.  In the last 5 years the average    decline was 82 active listings.  Charts page 6.

Two predictions.  First, the monthly median sold price will rise in September.  With the active median at $4,395,000 and the August sold median at $2,592,000 – a difference of $1,803,000 - it is a near certainty that September will be up (no guarantees).  In fact, every time in the past that this difference has exceeded $1,400,000, Laguna has always been up that month.  Chart page 5.

Second, the yearly median sold price for 2022 will be higher than 2021.  Since 1999 every year with 350, or more, closings has been followed by an up year (except for 2015).  Year-to-date we have already had 400 closings, so 2022 should be up.  Again, no guarantees.  Chart page 5.

Call me to take advantage of this market.

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the September 2021  Market 

September 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine

Laguna Beach real estate broker, Boyd Roberts gives his take on the September 2021 Laguna Beach real estate market:

Laguna’s Surge Resumes. This is Boyd Roberts, broker, of Laguna Gallery Real Estate with my take on the September Laguna Beach real estate market. As I predicted last month, median Laguna Beach prices did rally, but it was not pretty. The sold median was up $145,000 and finished at $2.737M – the second highest print ever. The pending and active medians finished at their highest levels ever. The median price reduction, however, more than tripled. Lagunians sold at near record highs, but only after their original price expectations were tempered.

 

Laguna’s listing crisis worsened. As of October 2nd, the number of active listings plunged to 99, a 70% reduction since August 2019 and a 55% reduction since August 2020. Simultaneously, the 12-month number of closings has soared to 579, a 70% increase since August 2019 and a 50% increase since August 2020. With 50 closings for the month, the supply of homes came in at 1.98 months, an 81% collapse since August 2019 and a 47% implosion since August 2020. Until these supply and demand fundamentals change expect prices to rise further.

 

Not coincidentally, both of my proprietary short-term price indicators – the Spread Indicator and the Pending Indicator – are now forecasting higher prices for October.

 

Call me to take full advantage of this market. Have an excellent October and thank you for joining me.

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the October 2021  Market 

October 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine

Laguna At All Time High | Pierces $1,300 | Forecast Review |

As Predicted | Zillow Take Note  

 

As I predicted last month, Laguna Beach real estate prices were up.  Not only did the monthly, the 6-month, and the 12-month charts all post record prints, but it was pretty:  median $ per square foot pierced $1,300, days on market – already low – fell another 54%, and price reductions were down 33%.  (Charts pages 5 and 8).     

High demand and low supply drive any bull market.  October’s 12-month number of sales, 572, was near record levels and is 51% higher than the 5-year median.  The number of active listings, as of November 1st, plunged to 94 – a multiyear low and is 57% below the 5-year median.  (Charts pages 7 and 6.)  Until there is a down shift in demand, an up shift in supply, or a combination of these factors, expect current trends to continue.

Every month since February 2016 I have published/produced a full report and video, chronicling the Laguna Beach real estate market.  All my reports, videos, and charts are posted on my website. 

Over the years I have developed 3 highly accurate fore-

casting models:  two short-term and one long-term.  Every month I publish all current forecasts.  Last month the short-term Pending Indicator and Spread Indicators both predicted that October prices would rise.  Last month’s issue also included two outstanding long-term Price Indicator forecasts.  On November 1, 2020, I predicted 2021 prices would be up.  On September 1, 2021, I predicted 2022 would be up.

The short-term Pending Indicator was developed early in 2016.  It compares the pending median to the previous months’ sold median.  When the pending median diverges $250,000 plus or minus from the sold median the Pending Indicator projects an up or down price move for that month.  Since February 2016 the Pending Indicator has issued 28 total signals.  27 of those signals have been correct.  The average move in price has been 15.5%. 

The most significant Pending Indicator signal came on May 4, 2020, reporting on the April market.  In the previous month’s report - with the onset of the Covid 19 chaos - I had just turned bearish.  But with the April sold median at $1,475,000 and the May 1st pending median at $2,395,000 - a difference of $920,000 - I was forced to consider the bullish case.  The May 2020 sold median was up 54%, closing out at $2,277,000.

The short-term Spread Indicator was developed last year.  It compares the active median to the sold median.  When the spread between the active median and the previous month’s sold median exceeds $1,400,000 the sold median for the current month should go up.  When the spread is $800,000 or less, the price should go down that month.  Since February 2016 there have been 23 up and down signals.  21 have been correct.  The average move was 13.4%.

The long-term Price Indicator was developed early in 2016.  It is very simple.  Every year Laguna Beach exceeds 350 closings, the following year’s median sold price should be higher.  Since 1999 the Price Indicator has issued 16 up signals.  15 of those signals have been correct.  The average move in price was 10.6%.

Call me if you want to work with a broker who knows the Laguna Beach market.

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the November 2021  Market 

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the December 2021  Market 

November 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine

Laguna Set to Surge Again.  This is Boyd Roberts, broker of LGRE – just a few minutes before my open house at 1055 Van Dyke - with my take on the November Laguna Beach real estate market.  You heard it here first, Laguna Beach real estate prices – with a 94% probability - are set to rally in December.  Likely, the move will be huge:  both of my proprietary and highly accurate short-term indicators are flashing strong up signals for December.

 

My Spread Indicator – which compares active to the sold prices – just issued its strongest up signal, ever.  Since February 2016 the Spread Indicator has issued 23 signals.  21 of those signals were correct.  The average move (including the wrong signals) was 13.4%.

 

The Pending Indicator – which compares pending to sold prices – just issued its second strongest signal ever.  For context the strongest signal was issued on May 1, 2020.  The sold median was up $802,000 that month.  Since February 2016 the Pending Indicator has issued 28 signals.  27 of those signals were correct.  The average move was 15.5%.

 

November’s market set the table.  2585 Riviera Drive in Irvine Cove just sold for a record $70M.  Just in the last 30 day, the number of active listings plunged from 94 to 71 or 24%.  Active listings are down 55% since last December and 67% since the December before that.  Year over year the number closed sales is up 31% in the last 12 months and 56% in the last 24 months.  The supply of homes plunged to record low 1.6 months.  At the current rate of sales, if zero homes came onto market, the entire inventory of homes in Laguna Beach would be in escrow in just under 50 days.  Median sold prices were off $150,000 from the previous record, settling at $2,650,000.   The dollars per square foot fell $125 to $1,190.

 

I just developed two new charts to better illustrate what is happening in the Laguna Beach real estate market:  Absorption and Pending Absorption.  Absorption is the ratio of active listings to closed sales, measuring the percentage of active listings closing every month.  From March 2016 to June 2020 absorption ranged from 5 to 18%.  In July 2020 it started to tick up decidedly.  November’s number was 60%, over three times the highest level of the previous range.  The last 8 months have averaged 48%.

 

Pending Absorption is the ratio of active listings to pending sales.  It measures the percentage of active listings that go pending every month.  From March 2016 to February of this year, Pending Absorption ranged from 10 to 36%.  The 5-year median is 21%.  November came in at 60%, almost 3 times the 5-year median.  The last 10 months have averaged 54%.  Sellers take note.