Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on the December 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Market

A Broker’s Take on the 2021 Laguna Beach Real Estate Market

The headline is WOW.  This is Boyd Roberts, broker of Laguna Gallery Real Estate with a special take on the 2021 Laguna Beach real estate market.  Stick with me to the end for my January and 2022 forecasts.

As I predicted December 7, 2021, prices were up huge.  The monthly median rose $1,145,000, finishing at a record $3,795,000.  For context that is up $2,320,000 from the April 2020 shut-down low.  The dollars per square foot surged 340 to 1,530. 

As I predicted November 7, 2020, the 2021 yearly median was up.  It rose $650,000 and finished at $2,650,000 – a 32% gain from 2020 and a 143% gain from 2011.  The dollars per square foot was up 194 and closed out the year at 1,239.

The listing crisis has worsened.  The January 1 print of active listings came in at a record low, 49.  For context that is down 30% in the last 30 days and 55% since September, when I first used the words “listing crisis.”  Dividing the number of actives, 49, by the December rate of sales, 36, the supply of homes is now at 1.3 months or just 41 days, a record.

Intersecting collapsing supply is overwhelming and surging demand, best illustrated by the 12-month moving volume of closed sales chart.  Demand is up 23% since January 2021 and up 64% since the Shutdown lows.

The closing ratio is going up.  The post Covid median closing ratio is up 17% from the pre Covid closing ratio.  Buyers are not messing around.

With 7 closings in December exceeding $10,000,000, the supply of luxury homes has now plunged to just 4 months.  For context that is down 94% since January 2021.  For the first time in the 6 years that I have been tracking the Laguna Beach real estate market, I can say:  all 6 market segments are now seller’s markets.

What is my forecast going forward?

With the January 1st pending median at $3,295,000 - $500,000 less than December’s sold median – the short-term Pending Indicator is forecasting that prices will be lower this month – 96% probability.  For context the Pending Indicator has issued 29 signals since February 2016.  28 of those signals have been correct.

With 568 closed sales in 2021, the long-term Price Indicator is forecasting that the 2022 sold median will be up from 2021 – 94% probability.  For context, since 1999 the Price Indicator has issued 17 signals.  16 have been correct.  The average move has been 12%.   

If you like this video, I invite you to like and subscribe to my channel on Youtube.  Just type “a broker’s take on the Laguna Beach real estate market” into the search bar.

If you like insightful Laguna Beach real estate charts, I invite you to visit my charts page at www.LagunaGalleryRealEstate.com.

If you are a buyer or seller and want to work with a broker who knows the Laguna Beach market, call me at 949-463-9152.  You will not regret it.

Do not forget Art Walk on Thursday.  Have an excellent 2022 and thank you for joining me.

Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine Publisher, Boyd Roberts, August 2021:  LAGUNA TO RALLY THRU 2022                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               The sold median was up $92,000 while the $ per square foot fell $101 in August.  The supply of homes remained tight at just      under 2 months.  The supply of homes below $1,500,000  imploded to  under a quarter of one month.   Charts pages 5, 6, and 9.

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Listing Crisis.  As of September 1st, the number of active listings came in at just 111 – the lowest print in my 5+ years tracking  Laguna Beach real estate.  The average of the last 5 September 1st prints is 257 listings.  Three things.  There were 56 closings in Laguna in    August.  There are 56 deals        currently in escrow.  Active inventory is cyclical.  It always declines from September 1st to January 1st.  In the last 5 years the average    decline was 82 active listings.  Charts page 6.

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Two predictions.  First, the monthly median sold price will rise in September.  With the active median at $4,395,000 and the August sold median at $2,592,000 – a difference of $1,803,000 - it is a near certainty that September will be up (no guarantees).  In fact, every time in the past that this difference has exceeded $1,400,000, Laguna has always been up that month.  Chart page 5.

Second, the yearly median sold price for 2022 will be higher than 2021.  Since 1999 every year with 350, or more, closings has been followed by an up year (except for 2015).  Year-to-date we have already had 400 closings, so 2022 should be up.  Again, no guarantees.  Chart page 5.

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Call me to take advantage of this market.

Laguna At All Time High

Pierces $1,300 | Forecast Review      

As Predicted | Zillow Take Note  

As I predicted last month, Laguna Beach real estate prices were up.  Not only did the monthly, the 6-month, and the 12-month charts all post record prints, but it was pretty:  median $ per square foot pierced $1,300, days on market – already low – fell another 54%, and price reductions were down 33%.  (Charts pages 5 and 8).     

High demand and low supply drive any bull market.  October’s 12-month number of sales, 572, was near record levels and is 51% higher than the 5-year median.  The number of active listings, as of November 1st, plunged to 94 – a multiyear low and is 57% below the 5-year median.  (Charts pages 7 and 6.)  Until there is a down shift in demand, an up shift in supply, or a combination of these factors, expect current trends to continue.

Every month since February 2016 I have published/produced a full report and video, chronicling the Laguna Beach real estate market.  All my reports, videos, and charts are posted on my website. 

Over the years I have developed 3 highly accurate fore-

casting models:  two short-term and one long-term.  Every month I publish all current forecasts.  Last month the short-term Pending Indicator and Spread Indicators both predicted that October prices would rise.  Last month’s issue also included two outstanding long-term Price Indicator forecasts.  On November 1, 2020, I predicted 2021 prices would be up.  On September 1, 2021, I predicted 2022 would be up.

The short-term Pending Indicator was developed early in 2016.  It compares the pending median to the previous months’ sold median.  When the pending median diverges $250,000 plus or minus from the sold median the Pending Indicator projects an up or down price move for that month.  Since February 2016 the Pending Indicator has issued 28 total signals.  27 of those signals have been correct.  The average move in price has been 15.5%. 

The most significant Pending Indicator signal came on May 4, 2020, reporting on the April market.  In the previous month’s report - with the onset of the Covid 19 chaos - I had just turned bearish.  But with the April sold median at $1,475,000 and the May 1st pending median at $2,395,000 - a difference of $920,000 - I was forced to consider the bullish case.  The May 2020 sold median was up 54%, closing out at $2,277,000.

The short-term Spread Indicator was developed last year.  It compares the active median to the sold median.  When the spread between the active median and the previous month’s sold median exceeds $1,400,000 the sold median for the current month should go up.  When the spread is $800,000 or less, the price should go down that month.  Since February 2016 there have been 23 up and down signals.  21 have been correct.  The average move was 13.4%.

The long-term Price Indicator was developed early in 2016.  It is very simple.  Every year Laguna Beach exceeds 350 closings, the following year’s median sold price should be higher.  Since 1999 the Price Indicator has issued 16 up signals.  15 of those signals have been correct.  The average move in price was 10.6%.

Call me if you want to work with a broker who knows the Laguna Beach market.

Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine Publisher, Boyd Roberts, June 2021: 

Laguna Up $1.2M

Listings Plunge on Record Volume | Supply Implodes

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Median Laguna Beach sold prices are up $521,000 year to date, $729,000 year over year, and $1,214,000 since the shutdown.  Chart page 6.

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In terms of $ per square foot  (3-month) we are up 16% since December and 40% year over year.  Chart page 9.

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The five-year median number of  active listings is 227.  Historically, the supply increases approximately 100 listings from January 1st into the summer months and declines 100 listings through the end of the year - except this last year.  We started 2021 with only 136 listings.  On July 1st when there are typically 250 to 300 active listings, we were at only 117 – a multiyear low.  Chart page 7.

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The 5-year median number of monthly closings is 32.  June’s number was 64 closings, a multiyear high.  Chart page 8.

If you divide the July 1st number of active listings (117) by the June rate of sales (64) you can estimate the number of months (1.82) that it would take to sell all actively listed homes.  The 5-year median is 7.2 months.  Notice that the May 2020 supply was 13.2 months and has now collapsed by 86%.  How high does the price have to go before sellers list their home for sale?  Chart page 7. 

Specialty Reports:  $10,000,000+ Market | View Ordinance

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the Laguna Beach  View Ordinance

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Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the June 2021

 $10,000,000+ Market

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Laguna Beach Real Estate Videos/Reports February 2016 to present

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the July 2021  Market 

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Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine Publisher, Boyd Roberts, July 2021: 

Historic Parabolic Move    

May 5, 2020, well into the shutdown, you heard it here first.  Reporting on what turned out to be the exact low (in my April 2020 Broker’s Take on the April 2020 market), this rapporteur said, “with the pending median $920,000 higher than April’s print prices should rally soon.”  Then 4 months later on September 17th I said, “if Laguna Beach real estate was a stock, I would say it is about to go parabolic.”

Evidenced by the 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, and yearly price charts – starting on page 5 – that is exactly what happened. 

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What now?  And is this parabolic move different?

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I will never forget the 1989 spike and the subsequent crash the following year.  Classic manic buying was followed by a cacophony of economic dislocations the next year:  interest rates between 12 and 14%, the Savings and Loan Crisis, and a recession.  The market did not start going up again until 1997.

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Then in 2007 – after appreciating two-fold - the mortgage market seized up and we had the sharpest economic implosion since the 1930s.  Not surprisingly, prices crashed again.

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I am not saying this time is different, but the foundation of this 2021 market is solid:  we did just come out of a mini depression, the government is throwing trillions of dollars into the economy, mortgage underwriting is solid, and mortgage rates are well below 3%. 

No matter your outlook, call me for all your real estate needs.  Stay safe and have an excellent August.

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the August 2021  Market 

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Laguna Beach Real Estate Magazine, August 2021

                                            LAGUNA TO RALLY THRU 2022

The sold median was up $92,000 while the $ per square foot fell $101 in August.  The supply of homes remained tight at just      under 2 months.  The supply of homes below $1,500,000  imploded to  under a quarter of one month.   Charts pages 5, 6, and 9.

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Listing Crisis.  As of September 1st, the number of active listings came in at just 111 – the lowest print in my 5+ years tracking  Laguna Beach real estate.  The average of the last 5 September 1st prints is 257 listings.  Three things.  There were 56 closings in Laguna in    August.  There are 56 deals        currently in escrow.  Active inventory is cyclical.  It always declines from September 1st to January 1st.  In the last 5 years the average    decline was 82 active listings.  Charts page 6.

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Two predictions.  First, the monthly median sold price will rise in September.  With the active median at $4,395,000 and the August sold median at $2,592,000 – a difference of $1,803,000 - it is a near certainty that September will be up (no guarantees).  In fact, every time in the past that this difference has exceeded $1,400,000, Laguna has always been up that month.  Chart page 5.

Second, the yearly median sold price for 2022 will be higher than 2021.  Since 1999 every year with 350, or more, closings has been followed by an up year (except for 2015).  Year-to-date we have already had 400 closings, so 2022 should be up.  Again, no guarantees.  Chart page 5.

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Call me to take advantage of this market.

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the September 2021  Market 

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Laguna Beach real estate broker, Boyd Roberts gives his take on the September 2021 Laguna Beach real estate market:

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Laguna’s Surge Resumes. This is Boyd Roberts, broker, of Laguna Gallery Real Estate with my take on the September Laguna Beach real estate market. As I predicted last month, median Laguna Beach prices did rally, but it was not pretty. The sold median was up $145,000 and finished at $2.737M – the second highest print ever. The pending and active medians finished at their highest levels ever. The median price reduction, however, more than tripled. Lagunians sold at near record highs, but only after their original price expectations were tempered.

Laguna’s listing crisis worsened. As of October 2nd, the number of active listings plunged to 99, a 70% reduction since August 2019 and a 55% reduction since August 2020. Simultaneously, the 12-month number of closings has soared to 579, a 70% increase since August 2019 and a 50% increase since August 2020. With 50 closings for the month, the supply of homes came in at 1.98 months, an 81% collapse since August 2019 and a 47% implosion since August 2020. Until these supply and demand fundamentals change expect prices to rise further.

Not coincidentally, both of my proprietary short-term price indicators – the Spread Indicator and the Pending Indicator – are now forecasting higher prices for October.

Call me to take full advantage of this market. Have an excellent October and thank you for joining me.

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the October 2021  Market 

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Laguna At All Time High | Pierces $1,300 | Forecast Review |

As Predicted | Zillow Take Note  

As I predicted last month, Laguna Beach real estate prices were up.  Not only did the monthly, the 6-month, and the 12-month charts all post record prints, but it was pretty:  median $ per square foot pierced $1,300, days on market – already low – fell another 54%, and price reductions were down 33%.  (Charts pages 5 and 8).     

High demand and low supply drive any bull market.  October’s 12-month number of sales, 572, was near record levels and is 51% higher than the 5-year median.  The number of active listings, as of November 1st, plunged to 94 – a multiyear low and is 57% below the 5-year median.  (Charts pages 7 and 6.)  Until there is a down shift in demand, an up shift in supply, or a combination of these factors, expect current trends to continue.

Every month since February 2016 I have published/produced a full report and video, chronicling the Laguna Beach real estate market.  All my reports, videos, and charts are posted on my website. 

Over the years I have developed 3 highly accurate fore-

casting models:  two short-term and one long-term.  Every month I publish all current forecasts.  Last month the short-term Pending Indicator and Spread Indicators both predicted that October prices would rise.  Last month’s issue also included two outstanding long-term Price Indicator forecasts.  On November 1, 2020, I predicted 2021 prices would be up.  On September 1, 2021, I predicted 2022 would be up.

The short-term Pending Indicator was developed early in 2016.  It compares the pending median to the previous months’ sold median.  When the pending median diverges $250,000 plus or minus from the sold median the Pending Indicator projects an up or down price move for that month.  Since February 2016 the Pending Indicator has issued 28 total signals.  27 of those signals have been correct.  The average move in price has been 15.5%. 

The most significant Pending Indicator signal came on May 4, 2020, reporting on the April market.  In the previous month’s report - with the onset of the Covid 19 chaos - I had just turned bearish.  But with the April sold median at $1,475,000 and the May 1st pending median at $2,395,000 - a difference of $920,000 - I was forced to consider the bullish case.  The May 2020 sold median was up 54%, closing out at $2,277,000.

The short-term Spread Indicator was developed last year.  It compares the active median to the sold median.  When the spread between the active median and the previous month’s sold median exceeds $1,400,000 the sold median for the current month should go up.  When the spread is $800,000 or less, the price should go down that month.  Since February 2016 there have been 23 up and down signals.  21 have been correct.  The average move was 13.4%.

The long-term Price Indicator was developed early in 2016.  It is very simple.  Every year Laguna Beach exceeds 350 closings, the following year’s median sold price should be higher.  Since 1999 the Price Indicator has issued 16 up signals.  15 of those signals have been correct.  The average move in price was 10.6%.

Call me if you want to work with a broker who knows the Laguna Beach market.

Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the November 2021  Market 

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Laguna Beach Real Estate Video | A Broker's Take on  the December 2021  Market 

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Laguna Set to Surge Again.  This is Boyd Roberts, broker of LGRE – just a few minutes before my open house at 1055 Van Dyke - with my take on the November Laguna Beach real estate market.  You heard it here first, Laguna Beach real estate prices – with a 94% probability - are set to rally in December.  Likely, the move will be huge:  both of my proprietary and highly accurate short-term indicators are flashing strong up signals for December.

My Spread Indicator – which compares active to the sold prices – just issued its strongest up signal, ever.  Since February 2016 the Spread Indicator has issued 23 signals.  21 of those signals were correct.  The average move (including the wrong signals) was 13.4%.

The Pending Indicator – which compares pending to sold prices – just issued its second strongest signal ever.  For context the strongest signal was issued on May 1, 2020.  The sold median was up $802,000 that month.  Since February 2016 the Pending Indicator has issued 28 signals.  27 of those signals were correct.  The average move was 15.5%.

November’s market set the table.  2585 Riviera Drive in Irvine Cove just sold for a record $70M.  Just in the last 30 day, the number of active listings plunged from 94 to 71 or 24%.  Active listings are down 55% since last December and 67% since the December before that.  Year over year the number closed sales is up 31% in the last 12 months and 56% in the last 24 months.  The supply of homes plunged to record low 1.6 months.  At the current rate of sales, if zero homes came onto market, the entire inventory of homes in Laguna Beach would be in escrow in just under 50 days.  Median sold prices were off $150,000 from the previous record, settling at $2,650,000.   The dollars per square foot fell $125 to $1,190.

I just developed two new charts to better illustrate what is happening in the Laguna Beach real estate market:  Absorption and Pending Absorption.  Absorption is the ratio of active listings to closed sales, measuring the percentage of active listings closing every month.  From March 2016 to June 2020 absorption ranged from 5 to 18%.  In July 2020 it started to tick up decidedly.  November’s number was 60%, over three times the highest level of the previous range.  The last 8 months have averaged 48%.

Pending Absorption is the ratio of active listings to pending sales.  It measures the percentage of active listings that go pending every month.  From March 2016 to February of this year, Pending Absorption ranged from 10 to 36%.  The 5-year median is 21%.  November came in at 60%, almost 3 times the 5-year median.  The last 10 months have averaged 54%.  Sellers take note.