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  • Writer's pictureBoyd Roberts

Laguna Beach Supply of Homes Implodes 48%

Laguna Now Seller’s Market | Price Rise in April Forecast


The Laguna Beach sold median – on low volume – fell $130,000 in March, settling at an even $2,500,000. The median dollars per square foot rose $44, finishing at $1,422.


Back to the headline, the supply of homes plunged 48 percent. As of April 1, there were 98 residences listed for sale. In March there were 22 closed sales. The supply of homes is calculated by dividing the number of homes active on the market as of the 1st by the previous month’s rate of sales. The supply of homes went from 8.66 months – a buyer’s market – in February to 4.45 months in March. Laguna is now a seller’s market.


What is next? Two predictive sets of data points, stand out.


One, pending activity and pending activity as a percentage of active inventory, is surging. The number of open escrows has surged 146% in the last two months. Pending Absorption – the ratio of active listings to open escrows is also up 128% in the last two months. With last month's closing ration above 100%, expect more closings and tighter supply this month.


Two, the Spread Indicator – which compares the active median median price to the sold median price – has just issued its strongest signal ever. The April 1 active median was $4,495,000. The March sold median was $2,500,000 – a difference of almost $2,000,000. Every time in the last 7 years that spread has exceeded $1.4M – 14 out of 14 times – the sold median has gone up that month. Be sure to check back next month.


If you like Laguna Beach real estate data, be sure to check out my website www.LagunaGalleryRealEstate.com.



Boyd Roberts, a long-time Laguna Beach resident, is the broker of Laguna Gallery Real Estate.


 










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