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Laguna Poised to Rally

The Laguna Beach sold median declined $200,500 in November, settling at $1,849,000. That is down $576,000 from the August high and up $374,000 from the April low. What a year. (See the Sold Median Chart - Monthly on the Charts Page).

I cannot say enough about the paucity of active listings. As of December 1st, the number of active listings registered at 160, the lowest print I have documented in my nearly 5 years of tracking Laguna Beach real estate prices. (The # of Actives Chart on the Charts Page says it all).

The Laguna Beach dollars per square foot is edging up. The 3 month - at $1,082 - was the third highest print ever. (See the 3 Month $ Per Sq Ft - Monthly chart on the Charts Page).


The spread between the active median and the sold median has widened to the highest level - $1,601,000 – that I have ever documented. Going back and looking at the data, I discovered that when the spread exceeds $1,300,000 there is a 91% probability that the sold median will be up the following month. Conversely, when the spread is less than $800,000 there is a 91% probability that the following month’s sold median will decline. Yes, this is a new indicator. Yes, I am forecasting higher prices for December. (See the Spread Chart on the Charts Page).


Separately, my short-term pending indicator – which tracks the difference between pending and sold prices - is also forecasting higher prices for December with a 95% probability.


Also notable for November, the supply of homes – at 3.7 months – is the second lowest level that I have ever documented. (See the Supply Chart on the Charts Page).


The supply of homes under $1,500,000 – at .97 months was particularly strong. (All segment charts can be found on the Charts Page).


It could be time to list. Call 949-463-9152 for outstanding service.

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