Laguna Beach Real Estate
December 2019 Sales Report
2019 Review | 2020 Outlook
[Edition #54]
Table of Contents
My Take Page 2
Closing Detail Page 3
Sales Data Page 4
Market Segment Analysis Page 4
Current Price Projections Page 4
Charts Page 5
Sold Median Yearly / # of Closings | Long Term Price Indicator Page 5
The Spread | Active / Sold - Median Monthly Page 5
Sold Median Monthly Website
Sold Median Monthly with Short Term Pending Indicator Signals Website
The Pending Indicator Website
Sold Median - 3 Month Moving - Monthly Website
Sold Median - 6 Month Moving - Monthly Website
Sold Median - 12 Month Moving - Monthly Website
Sold 3 Month Volume Monthly Website
Sold 6 Month Volume Monthly Website
Sold 12 Month Volume Monthly Website
Sold - $ Per Square Foot – Median Yearly Website
Sold - $ Per Square Foot – Median Monthly Website
Sold - $ Per Square Foot – 3 Month Median Moving - Monthly Page 6
Sold Days on Market – Median Monthly Website
Sold Days on Market – Median Yearly Website
Pending Median Monthly Website
Pending Volume Monthly Website
Active # of Listings **Chart of the Month** Page 2
Supply | Adjusted Supply Monthly Page 6
Market Segment Supply ($1.5M-, $1.5-2M, $2-3M, $3-5M, $5-10M, $10M+) Website
www.LagunaGalleryRealEstate.com
Boyd Roberts | Laguna Gallery Real Estate | 949-463-9152
Boyd@LagunaGalleryRealEstate.com | CA Broker’s License #01354788
My Take
As I predicted a month ago in this space, Laguna prices were up in December. The sold median rose $320,000 finishing at $1,770,000 (chart on website). The number of active listings plunged to 175: down from 218 last month and 324 in July (chart below). With that declining inventory and a very decent 32 closings for the month, the supply of homes came in at just 5.4 months. That is the lowest supply print since March 2016 (chart page 6). The under $1.5M segment – with only 13% of the listings and 42% of the sales -- was particularly strong with less than a 2-month supply of homes - an extreme seller's market.
As I predicted a year ago in this space, 2019 was historic. Even though the year started out with a 17-month supply of homes, the sold median rallied $60,000 and finished at $1,895,000 – an all-time high (chart page 5). The median price reduction was $210,000 or 9.8%. The median $ per square foot finished at $1,011 (chart on website).
What is next? What is my outlook? All evidence points to still higher prices. Both my short term and long-term price indicators have issued fresh up signals (charts on website). With pending prices $425,000 higher than December's sold median, my Short-Term Pending Indicator – which has never been wrong – is now projecting higher prices, probably this month.
And with 2019 finishing at 383 closings my Long-Term Price Indicator – which has only been wrong once in the last 20 years – is now projecting 2020 as an up year. No guarantees.
One thing before I go. Usually when I compile the data for these reports there is almost always contrary data to support an opposite forecast. In the absence of such data, although I stand by my forecast, I am cautious.
December 2019 Sales Data
Active Median (As of 1/1/2020) $ 3,099,000 175 Listings
Days on Market (DOM) Median 148 Days
$ per Square Foot Median $ 1,176
Pending Median (As of 1/1/2020) $ 2,195,000 33 Listings
DOM Median 113 Days
$ per Square Foot Median $ 1,059
Sold Median December 2019 $ 1,770,000 32 Sales
Price Reduction Median $ 309,000 10 %
DOM Median 98 Days
$ Per Square Foot Median $ 976
Sold 3 Month Median (10/1/2019 – 12/31/2019) $ 1,700,000 96 Sales
$ Per Square Foot Median $ 1,052
Sold 6 Month Median (7/1/2019 – 12/31/2019) $ 1,850,000 200 Sales
Sold 12 Month Median (1/1/2019 – 12/31/2019) $ 1,895,000 383 Sales
Price Reduction Median $ 210,000 9.8 %
DOM Median 82 Days
$ Per Square Foot Median $ 1,011
Sold 2018 Median $ 1,835,000 354 Sales
Sold 2019 Median $ 1,895,000 383 Sales
Supply | 3 Month Adjusted Supply 5.4 Months 5.4 Months
The Spread (Active - Sold) Median + $ 1,329,000
The Short-Term Pending Indicator (Pending - Sold) Median + $ 425,000
Market Segment Analysis
MARKET SEGMENT ACTIVE SOLD SUPPLY TYPE OF MARKET
(As of 1/1/2020) (last 3 Months) (Adj 3 Months)
$1,499,999- 13% 42% 1.7 Months Extreme Seller’s Market
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999 11% 17% 3.5 Months Seller’s Market
$2,000,000 - $2,999,999 26% 12% 11 Months Neutral Market
$3,000,000 - $4,999,999 21% 17% 6.5 Months Neutral Market
$5,000,000 - $9,999,999 17% 6% 15 Months Buyer’s Market
$10,000,000+ 11% 3% 20 Months Buyer’s Market
Current Price Projections
Short-Term Pending Indicator (As of 1/1/2020) Projection for Short Term Up
Long-Term Price Indicator (As of 1/1/2020) Projection for 2020 Up