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Laguna Beach Real Estate December 2016 Sales Report (Word)

Laguna Beach Real Estate

December 2016 Sales Report

Boyd Roberts

Gallery Real Estate

YouTube : “Boyd Roberts Laguna Beach December 2016”


December’s Action: Median closed sales finished out at an even $2,000,000, up $100,000 from November. Notably, the median price per square foot of closed sales dropped 16%, the number of active listings dropped 20%, and a leading indicator – the median price of pending deals – declined further to just under $1,600,000.

2016 in Review: Median closed sales finished a little lower than December’s at an even $1,800,000. It is interesting to note the peculiar way that we arrived at this annual record high: buyers spent the whole year buying the lower end. In fact, the median price of actively listed homes, routinely, was priced $1M or more, higher than the previous month’s median sold price. For example, as of January 1st, the median price of all active homes was $2,895,000, while December’s sold median was $2,000,000.

My Take: Short term, I think prices will correct. That pipeline of lower priced pending deals will probably close soon. Long term, I continue to think that prices are going way up. Certainly, with only a 6-month supply of homes currently for sale, sellers are not flooding the market with homes. Affordability, valuation, and rising interest rate arguments, to date, have not trumped strong demand.

2016 Transaction of the Year: 1101 Marine Drive, the iconic twin points property set between Shaw’s Cove and Crescent Bay Beaches is a classic example of over pricing. Originally listed in May 2015 – just as world stock markets were at significant long term highs -- it was priced to fail at $75,000,000. The Chinese stock market soon collapsed and the listing floundered. The sellers dropped their price to $65,000,000 in October and again to $45,000,000 in November. It was not pretty, but it eventually did sell at a record $45,000,000 early in 2016. Dismiss it as theoretical – all that you like – but overpricing is a real problem. Buyers will not take an overpriced home seriously. It will become illiquid. The Twin Points property, likely, could have sold for millions more, if the seller had simply started from a much lower price.

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ACTIVEs (As of January 1, 2017)

Total 164 Listings

Median Price $ 2,895,000

Median CDOM 118 Days

Median Price per Square Foot $ 1,135

PENDINGs/Under Contract (P/U) (As of January 1, 2017)

Total 38 Listings

Median Price $ 1,599,000

Median CDOM 83 Days

Median Price per Square Foot $ 861

SOLDs (December, 2016)

Total 27 Closings

Total Requiring a Price Reduction 23 Closings

% of Closings at a Reduced Price 86%

Average Price Reduction $ 151,593

Average Price Reduction as a % 5 %

Median Price $ 2,000,000

Median CDOM 129 Days

Median Price per Square Foot $ 868

Total Supply of Actives at this Rate of Sales 6.07 Months

Difference Between Active Median Price and P/U Median Price + $ 1,296,000

Difference Between Active Median Price and Sold Median Price + $ 895,000

Difference Between P/U Median Price and Sold Median Price - $ 401,000

More SOLDs (Most Recent 3 Full Months: 10/1/2016 – 12/31/2016)

Total 86 Closings

Total Requiring a Price Reduction 72 Closings

Median Price $ 1,915,350

Median CDOM 109 Days

Median Price per Square Foot $ 984

Total Supply of Actives at this Rate of Sales 5.72 Months

More SOLD Median Price History (Full Calendar Months)

Month/Year Median Price # of Sales

Last 6 Full Months $1,825,000 185

(7/1/2016 – 12/31/2016)

Last 12 Full Months $1,800,000 370


More Median Price History (Full Calendar Years)

Year Median Price # of Sales Year Median Price # of Sales

2000 $ 665,000 562 2008 $1,535,000 204

2001 $ 775,000 437 2009 $1,185,000 274

2002 $ 785,000 527 2010 $1,200,000 334

2003 $ 971,000 542 2011 $1,100,000 329

2004 $1,275,000 514 2012 $1,250,000 435

2005 $1,505,000 428 2013 $1,525,000 422

2006 $1,625,000 322 2014 $1,785,000 411

2007 $1,629,000 281 2015 $1,700,000 384

2016 $1,800,000 370

Boyd Roberts is solely responsible for all content/statements/opinions/and conclusions. He is a licensed broker, CA BRE #01354788, and is not a professional statistician or an economist. All data has been taken from sources deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed and may be subject to compilation errors, data source errors, and statistically invalid data sample sizes. All statistics/statements/opinions are not guaranteed, nor are they a forecast of higher or lower prices. Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc.: January 1, 2017 (all data). This information is for your personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any other purpose. Pending/Under Contract prices are not necessarily the contract price, likely, they are the last active price before going into contract. All days on market statistics are Combined Days On Market (CDOM). CDOM is calculated by combining the active Days On Market (DOM) of listings separated by 90 days or less.

Boyd Roberts 949-463-9152

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