Laguna Beach Real Estate Report | December 2019, 2019 in Review, and 2020 Outlook

Laguna Beach Real Estate

 

 

December 2019 Sales Report

2019 Review | 2020 Outlook

 

[Edition #54]

 

 

Table of Contents

 

 

My Take                                                                                                                                 Page 2

 

Closing Detail                                                                                                                         Page 3

 

Sales Data                                                                                                                               Page 4

 

Market Segment Analysis                                                                                                      Page 4

 

Current Price Projections                                                                                                      Page 4

 

Charts                                                                                                                                     Page 5

 

   Sold Median Yearly / # of Closings | Long Term Price Indicator                                     Page 5

   The Spread | Active / Sold - Median Monthly                                                                    Page 5

   Sold Median Monthly                                                                                                          Website

   Sold Median Monthly with Short Term Pending Indicator Signals                                  Website

   The Pending Indicator                                                                                                        Website

   Sold Median - 3 Month Moving - Monthly                                                                         Website

   Sold Median - 6 Month Moving - Monthly                                                                         Website

   Sold Median - 12 Month Moving - Monthly                                                                      Website

   Sold 3 Month Volume Monthly                                                                                           Website

   Sold 6 Month Volume Monthly                                                                                           Website

   Sold 12 Month Volume Monthly                                                                                         Website

   Sold - $ Per Square Foot – Median Yearly                                                                        Website

   Sold - $ Per Square Foot – Median Monthly                                                                      Website

   Sold - $ Per Square Foot – 3 Month Median Moving - Monthly                                       Page 6

   Sold Days on Market – Median Monthly                                                                           Website  

   Sold Days on Market – Median Yearly                                                                              Website

   Pending Median Monthly                                                                                                    Website

   Pending Volume Monthly                                                                                                               Website

   Active # of Listings                                                  **Chart of the Month**                     Page 2

   Supply | Adjusted Supply Monthly                                                                                     Page 6

   Market Segment Supply ($1.5M-, $1.5-2M, $2-3M, $3-5M, $5-10M, $10M+)                  Website                      

 

 

 

www.LagunaGalleryRealEstate.com

 

Boyd Roberts | Laguna Gallery Real Estate | 949-463-9152

 

 

Boyd@LagunaGalleryRealEstate.com | CA Broker’s License #01354788

 

My Take

 

As I predicted a month ago in this space, Laguna prices were up in December. The sold median rose $320,000 finishing at $1,770,000 (chart on website).  The number of active listings plunged to 175: down from 218 last month and 324 in July (chart below).  With that declining inventory and a very decent 32 closings for the month, the supply of homes came in at just 5.4 months.  That is the lowest supply print since March 2016 (chart page 6).  The under $1.5M segment – with only 13% of the listings and 42% of the sales -- was particularly strong with less than a 2-month supply of homes - an extreme seller's market.

 

As I predicted a year ago in this space, 2019 was historic.  Even though the year started out with a 17-month supply of homes, the sold median rallied $60,000 and finished at $1,895,000 – an all-time high (chart page 5).  The median price reduction was $210,000 or 9.8%.  The median $ per square foot finished at $1,011 (chart on website).

 

What is next?  What is my outlook? All evidence points to still higher prices.  Both my short term and long-term price indicators have issued fresh up signals (charts on website). With pending prices $425,000 higher than December's sold median, my Short-Term Pending Indicator – which has never been wrong – is now projecting higher prices, probably this month.

 

And with 2019 finishing at 383 closings my Long-Term Price Indicator – which has only been wrong once in the last 20 years – is now projecting 2020 as an up year.  No guarantees.

 

One thing before I go. Usually when I compile the data for these reports there is almost always contrary data to support an opposite forecast. In the absence of such data, although I stand by my forecast, I am cautious.

 

           

 

 

December 2019 Sales Data

 

 

Active Median (As of 1/1/2020)                                                   $ 3,099,000                 175 Listings

 

Days on Market (DOM) Median                                                                 148 Days

$ per Square Foot Median                                                                           $ 1,176

 

Pending Median (As of 1/1/2020)                                                $ 2,195,000                 33 Listings

 

            DOM Median                                                                                                113 Days

            $ per Square Foot Median                                                                           $ 1,059

 

Sold Median December 2019                                               $ 1,770,000                 32 Sales

 

            Price Reduction Median                                           $    309,000                 10 %

            DOM Median                                                                                                98 Days

            $ Per Square Foot Median                                                                           $ 976

 

Sold 3 Month Median (10/1/2019 – 12/31/2019)                              $ 1,700,000                 96 Sales

 

$ Per Square Foot Median                                                                           $ 1,052

 

 

Sold 6 Month Median (7/1/2019 – 12/31/2019)                                             $ 1,850,000                 200 Sales

 

Sold 12 Month Median (1/1/2019 – 12/31/2019)                                        $ 1,895,000                 383 Sales

 

Price Reduction Median                                           $    210,000                 9.8 %

DOM Median                                                                                                82 Days

$ Per Square Foot Median                                                                           $ 1,011

 

Sold 2018 Median                                                                  $ 1,835,000                 354 Sales

Sold 2019 Median                                                                  $ 1,895,000                 383 Sales

 

Supply | 3 Month Adjusted Supply                                     5.4 Months                 5.4 Months

The Spread (Active - Sold) Median                                                                        + $ 1,329,000 

The Short-Term Pending Indicator (Pending - Sold) Median                             + $    425,000

 

 

Market Segment Analysis

 

                                                                                   

 MARKET SEGMENT       ACTIVE          SOLD             SUPPLY       TYPE OF MARKET

                                               (As of 1/1/2020)         (last 3 Months)           (Adj 3 Months)                        

$1,499,999-                                  13%               42%            1.7 Months     Extreme Seller’s Market

$1,500,000 - $1,999,999              11%               17%            3.5 Months     Seller’s Market

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999              26%               12%            11 Months      Neutral Market

$3,000,000 - $4,999,999              21%               17%            6.5 Months     Neutral Market

$5,000,000 - $9,999,999              17%                 6%            15 Months      Buyer’s Market

$10,000,000+                               11%                 3%            20 Months      Buyer’s Market

 

Current Price Projections

 

 

 

Short-Term Pending Indicator (As of 1/1/2020)  Projection for Short Term              Up

Long-Term Price Indicator (As of 1/1/2020) Projection for 2020                                           Up

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