Laguna Beach Real Estate
December 2016 Sales Report
Boyd Roberts
Gallery Real Estate
YouTube : “Boyd Roberts Laguna Beach December 2016”
949-463-9152
December’s Action: Median closed sales finished out at an even $2,000,000, up $100,000 from November. Notably, the median price per square foot of closed sales dropped 16%, the number of active listings dropped 20%, and a leading indicator – the median price of pending deals – declined further to just under $1,600,000.
2016 in Review: Median closed sales finished a little lower than December’s at an even $1,800,000. It is interesting to note the peculiar way that we arrived at this annual record high: buyers spent the whole year buying the lower end. In fact, the median price of actively listed homes, routinely, was priced $1M or more, higher than the previous month’s median sold price. For example, as of January 1st, the median price of all active homes was $2,895,000, while December’s sold median was $2,000,000.
My Take: Short term, I think prices will correct. That pipeline of lower priced pending deals will probably close soon. Long term, I continue to think that prices are going way up. Certainly, with only a 6-month supply of homes currently for sale, sellers are not flooding the market with homes. Affordability, valuation, and rising interest rate arguments, to date, have not trumped strong demand.
2016 Transaction of the Year: 1101 Marine Drive, the iconic twin points property set between Shaw’s Cove and Crescent Bay Beaches is a classic example of over pricing. Originally listed in May 2015 – just as world stock markets were at significant long term highs -- it was priced to fail at $75,000,000. The Chinese stock market soon collapsed and the listing floundered. The sellers dropped their price to $65,000,000 in October and again to $45,000,000 in November. It was not pretty, but it eventually did sell at a record $45,000,000 early in 2016. Dismiss it as theoretical – all that you like – but overpricing is a real problem. Buyers will not take an overpriced home seriously. It will become illiquid. The Twin Points property, likely, could have sold for millions more, if the seller had simply started from a much lower price.
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ACTIVEs (As of January 1, 2017)
Total 164 Listings
Median Price $ 2,895,000
Median CDOM 118 Days
Median Price per Square Foot $ 1,135
PENDINGs/Under Contract (P/U) (As of January 1, 2017)
Total 38 Listings
Median Price $ 1,599,000
Median CDOM 83 Days
Median Price per Square Foot $ 861
SOLDs (December, 2016)
Total 27 Closings
Total Requiring a Price Reduction 23 Closings
% of Closings at a Reduced Price 86%
Average Price Reduction $ 151,593
Average Price Reduction as a % 5 %
Median Price $ 2,000,000
Median CDOM 129 Days
Median Price per Square Foot $ 868
Total Supply of Actives at this Rate of Sales 6.07 Months
Difference Between Active Median Price and P/U Median Price + $ 1,296,000
Difference Between Active Median Price and Sold Median Price + $ 895,000
Difference Between P/U Median Price and Sold Median Price - $ 401,000
More SOLDs (Most Recent 3 Full Months: 10/1/2016 – 12/31/2016)
Total 86 Closings
Total Requiring a Price Reduction 72 Closings
Median Price $ 1,915,350
Median CDOM 109 Days
Median Price per Square Foot $ 984
Total Supply of Actives at this Rate of Sales 5.72 Months
More SOLD Median Price History (Full Calendar Months)
Month/Year Median Price # of Sales
Last 6 Full Months $1,825,000 185
(7/1/2016 – 12/31/2016)
Last 12 Full Months $1,800,000 370
(1/1/2016-12/31/2016)
More Median Price History (Full Calendar Years)
Year Median Price # of Sales Year Median Price # of Sales
2000 $ 665,000 562 2008 $1,535,000 204
2001 $ 775,000 437 2009 $1,185,000 274
2002 $ 785,000 527 2010 $1,200,000 334
2003 $ 971,000 542 2011 $1,100,000 329
2004 $1,275,000 514 2012 $1,250,000 435
2005 $1,505,000 428 2013 $1,525,000 422
2006 $1,625,000 322 2014 $1,785,000 411
2007 $1,629,000 281 2015 $1,700,000 384
2016 $1,800,000 370
Boyd Roberts is solely responsible for all content/statements/opinions/and conclusions. He is a licensed broker, CA BRE #01354788, and is not a professional statistician or an economist. All data has been taken from sources deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed and may be subject to compilation errors, data source errors, and statistically invalid data sample sizes. All statistics/statements/opinions are not guaranteed, nor are they a forecast of higher or lower prices. Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc.: January 1, 2017 (all data). This information is for your personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any other purpose. Pending/Under Contract prices are not necessarily the contract price, likely, they are the last active price before going into contract. All days on market statistics are Combined Days On Market (CDOM). CDOM is calculated by combining the active Days On Market (DOM) of listings separated by 90 days or less.
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