Laguna Beach Real Estate December 2016 Sales Report (Word)

January 5, 2017

Laguna Beach Real Estate


December 2016 Sales Report


Boyd Roberts       


Gallery Real Estate


YouTube : “Boyd Roberts Laguna Beach December 2016”




December’s Action:  Median closed sales finished out at an even $2,000,000, up $100,000 from November.  Notably, the median price per square foot of closed sales dropped 16%, the number of active listings dropped 20%, and a leading indicator – the median price of pending deals – declined further to just under $1,600,000.


2016 in Review:  Median closed sales finished a little lower than December’s at an even $1,800,000.  It is interesting to note the peculiar way that we arrived at this annual record high:  buyers spent the whole year buying the lower end.  In fact, the median price of actively listed homes, routinely, was priced $1M or more, higher than the previous month’s median sold price.  For example, as of January 1st, the median price of all active homes was $2,895,000, while December’s sold median was $2,000,000.


My Take:  Short term, I think prices will correct.  That pipeline of lower priced pending deals will probably close soon.  Long term, I continue to think that prices are going way up.  Certainly, with only a 6-month supply of homes currently for sale, sellers are not flooding the market with homes.  Affordability, valuation, and rising interest rate arguments, to date, have not trumped strong demand.  


2016 Transaction of the Year:  1101 Marine Drive, the iconic twin points property set between Shaw’s Cove and Crescent Bay Beaches is a classic example of over pricing.   Originally listed in May 2015 – just as world stock markets were at significant long term highs -- it was priced to fail at $75,000,000.  The Chinese stock market soon collapsed and the listing floundered.  The sellers dropped their price to $65,000,000 in October and again to $45,000,000 in November.  It was not pretty, but it eventually did sell at a record $45,000,000 early in 2016. Dismiss it as theoretical – all that you like – but overpricing is a real problem.  Buyers will not take an overpriced home seriously.  It will become illiquid.  The Twin Points property, likely, could have sold for millions more, if the seller had simply started from a much lower price. 


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ACTIVEs (As of January 1, 2017)


Total                                                                                                               164 Listings

Median Price                                                                                                             $ 2,895,000

Median CDOM                                                                                             118 Days

Median Price per Square Foot                                                                    $ 1,135


PENDINGs/Under Contract (P/U) (As of January 1, 2017)


            Total                                                                                                               38 Listings

            Median Price                                                                                                 $ 1,599,000

            Median CDOM                                                                                             83 Days

            Median Price per Square Foot                                                                    $ 861


SOLDs (December, 2016)    


            Total                                                                                                               27 Closings

            Total Requiring a Price Reduction                                                             23 Closings

            % of Closings at a Reduced Price                                                               86%

            Average Price Reduction                                                                             $ 151,593

            Average Price Reduction as a %                                                                 5 %

            Median Price                                                                                                 $ 2,000,000

            Median CDOM                                                                                             129 Days

            Median Price per Square Foot                                                                    $ 868


Total Supply of Actives at this Rate of Sales                                                          6.07 Months

Difference Between Active Median Price and P/U Median Price                                    + $ 1,296,000

Difference Between Active Median Price and Sold Median Price                       + $    895,000

Difference Between P/U Median Price and Sold Median Price                           -  $    401,000


More SOLDs (Most Recent 3 Full Months:  10/1/2016 – 12/31/2016)     


            Total                                                                                                               86 Closings

            Total Requiring a Price Reduction                                                             72 Closings

            Median Price                                                                                                 $ 1,915,350

            Median CDOM                                                                                             109 Days

            Median Price per Square Foot                                                                    $ 984

            Total Supply of Actives at this Rate of Sales                                              5.72 Months


More SOLD Median Price History (Full Calendar Months)


            Month/Year         Median Price                    # of Sales                                


Last 6 Full Months    $1,825,000                  185                                         

  (7/1/2016 – 12/31/2016)

Last 12 Full Months  $1,800,000                  370                                         



More Median Price History (Full Calendar Years)


Year                       Median Price        # of Sales                            Year                       Median Price      # of Sales


2000                $   665,000        562                            2008                $1,535,000      204

2001                $   775,000        437                            2009                $1,185,000      274

2002                $   785,000        527                            2010                $1,200,000      334

2003                $   971,000        542                            2011                $1,100,000      329

2004                $1,275,000        514                            2012                $1,250,000      435

2005                $1,505,000        428                            2013                $1,525,000      422

2006                $1,625,000        322                            2014                $1,785,000      411

2007                $1,629,000        281                            2015                $1,700,000      384

                                                                                    2016                $1,800,000      370


Boyd Roberts is solely responsible for all content/statements/opinions/and conclusions.  He is a licensed broker, CA BRE #01354788, and is not a professional statistician or an economist.  All data has been taken from sources deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed and may be subject to compilation errors, data source errors, and statistically invalid data sample sizes.  All statistics/statements/opinions are not guaranteed, nor are they a forecast of higher or lower prices.  Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc.:  January 1, 2017 (all data). This information is for your personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any other purpose.  Pending/Under Contract prices are not necessarily the contract price, likely, they are the last active price before going into contract.  All days on market statistics are Combined Days On Market (CDOM).  CDOM is calculated by combining the active Days On Market (DOM) of listings separated by 90 days or less.


Boyd Roberts                949-463-9152       



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