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Laguna Beach Real Estate November 2016 Sales Report (Word)

Laguna Beach Real Estate

November 2016 Sales Report

Boyd Roberts

Gallery Real Estate

YouTube: Boyd Roberts Laguna Beach 2016

Summary Take: As a baseline, the highest annual median price in Laguna was $1,785,000 in 2014. November 2016’s median closing price was an even $1,900,000. The most recent 12 months was an even 1,800,000. Based on these three facts, one might conclude that 2016 is going to be a record breaking year. There are two problem with this analysis. One, the median price of pending sales just dropped by almost half a million dollars; and two, current sellers want $1M more for their homes than buyers are willing to pay. Buyers seem to be focused on the well-priced, lower end homes. More on overpricing below. Long Term Outlook: So how will all of this play out, long term? Of course, no one knows. My personal opinion is that high end, coastal real estate, is going way up. Since 2008 the Federal Reserve has printed more fiat money than in the entire history of mankind before that point. As an Economics major in college I was taught that inflation equals the money supply times the velocity, or turnover, of that money. Our economy has been sluggish with very low turnover since 2000. With the election of Trump, one could argue that this velocity will go up. Since 2008 we have only seen inflation in the real estate, stock, and bond markets. With interest rates so low, the bond market certainly has limited upside. I think interest rates are going up, if that happens the bond market will not benefit. In my opinion with that enormous amount of money sloshing around and turning over faster, the two remaining up trending markets – real estate and stocks – will rise to unprecedented heights. Forget valuation and affordability arguments, these puppies are going up. No guarantees. Transaction of the Month: Back to over pricing, the two units on 220 San Joaquin Street – 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths in the back and 2 bedrooms, 2 baths on a single level in the front was originally listed at $2,395,000 on May 2, 2016. After a 23% price reduction, it sold for $1,825,000 on November 17, 2016. Question: what can go wrong when a home is listed to high? Possibly, it will take longer to sell and likely sell for less than if the seller had started at a lower listing price. Call, text, or email me if you have any questions or would like to be put on my distribution list.

ACTIVEs (As of December 1, 2016)

Total 205 Listings

Median Price $ 2,895,000

Median CDOM 117 Days

Median Price per Square Foot $ 1,175

PENDINGs/BACKUPSs (P/B) (As of December 3, 2016)

Total 41 Listings

Median Price $ 1,675,000

Median CDOM 104 Days

Median Price per Square Foot $ 838

SOLDs (November, 2016)

Total 29 Closings

Total Requiring a Price Reduction 25 Closings

% of Closings at a Reduced Price 86%

Average Price Reduction $ 207,472

Average Price Reduction as a % 6.1 %

Median Price $ 1,900,000

Median CDOM 109 Days

Median Price per Square Foot $ 1,041

Total Supply of Actives at this Rate of Sales 7.06 Months

Difference Between Active Median Price and P/B Median Price + $ 1,220,000

Difference Between Active Median Price and Sold Median Price + $ 995,000

Difference Between P/B Median Price and Sold Median Price - $ 225,000

More SOLDs (Most Recent 3 Full Months: 9/1/2016 – 11/30/2016)

Total 84 Closings

Total Requiring a Price Reduction 65 Closings

Median Price $ 1,850,000

Median CDOM 88 Days

Median Price per Square Foot $ 1,034

Total Supply of Actives at this Rate of Sales 7.32 Months

More SOLDs Median Price History (Full Calendar Months)

Month/Year Median Price # of Sales

Last 6 Full Months $1,750,000 190

(6/1/2016 – 11/30/2016)

Last 12 Full Months $1,800,000 374

(12/1/2015 – 11/30/2016)

More Median Price History (Full Calendar Years)

Year Median Price # of Sales Year Median Price # of Sales

2000 $ 665,000 562 2008 $1,535,000 204

2001 $ 775,000 437 2009 $1,185,000 274

2002 $ 785,000 527 2010 $1,200,000 334

2003 $ 971,000 542 2011 $1,100,000 329

2004 $1,275,000 514 2012 $1,250,000 435

2005 $1,505,000 428 2013 $1,525,000 422

2006 $1,625,000 322 2014 $1,785,000 411

2007 $1,629,000 281 2015 $1,700,000 384

Boyd Roberts is solely responsible for all content/statements/opinions/and conclusions. He is a licensed broker, CA BRE #01354788, and is not a professional statistician or an economist. All data has been taken from sources deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed and may be subject to compilation errors, data source errors, and statistically invalid data sample sizes. All statistics/statements/opinions are not guaranteed, nor are they a forecast of higher or lower prices. Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc.: December 1, 2016 (active data) and December 3, 2016 (all other data). This information is for your personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose. Pending/Backup prices are not necessarily the contract price, likely, they are the last active price before going into contract. All days on market statistics are Combined Days On Market (CDOM). CDOM is calculated by combining the active Days On Market (DOM) of listings separated by 90 days or less.

Boyd Roberts 949-463-9152 Boyd.GalleryRE@gmail.com

Copyright 2016. All Rights Reserved. BRE #01354788

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