Laguna Beach Real Estate November 2016 Sales Report (Word)

December 6, 2016

Laguna Beach Real Estate

 

November 2016 Sales Report

 

Boyd Roberts       

 

Gallery Real Estate

 

YouTube:  Boyd Roberts Laguna Beach 2016

 

 

 

Summary Take:  As a baseline, the highest annual median price in Laguna was $1,785,000 in 2014.  November 2016’s median closing price was an even $1,900,000.  The most recent 12 months was an even 1,800,000.  Based on these three facts, one might conclude that 2016 is going to be a record breaking year.  There are two problem with this analysis.  One, the median price of pending sales just dropped by almost half a million dollars; and two, current sellers want $1M more for their homes than buyers are willing to pay.  Buyers seem to be focused on the well-priced, lower end homes.  More on overpricing below.

Long Term Outlook:  So how will all of this play out, long term?  Of course, no one knows.  My personal opinion is that high end, coastal real estate, is going way up.  Since 2008 the Federal Reserve has printed more fiat money than in the entire history of mankind before that point.  As an Economics major in college I was taught that inflation equals the money supply times the velocity, or turnover, of that money.  Our economy has been sluggish with very low turnover since 2000.  With the election of Trump, one could argue that this velocity will go up.  Since 2008 we have only seen inflation in the real estate, stock, and bond markets.  With interest rates so low, the bond market certainly has limited upside.  I think interest rates are going up, if that happens the bond market will not benefit.  In my opinion with that enormous amount of money sloshing around and turning over faster, the two remaining up trending markets – real estate and stocks – will rise to unprecedented heights.  Forget valuation and affordability arguments, these puppies are going up.  No guarantees. 

Transaction of the Month:  Back to over pricing, the two units on 220 San Joaquin Street – 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths in the back and 2 bedrooms, 2 baths on a single level in the front was originally listed at $2,395,000 on May 2, 2016.  After a 23% price reduction, it sold for $1,825,000 on November 17, 2016.  Question: what can go wrong when a home is listed to high?  Possibly, it will take longer to sell and likely sell for less than if the seller had started at a lower listing price. 

Call, text, or email me if you have any questions or would like to be put on my distribution list.

 
 

 

 

 

ACTIVEs (As of December 1, 2016)

 

Total                                                                                                               205 Listings

Median Price                                                                                                             $ 2,895,000

Median CDOM                                                                                             117 Days

Median Price per Square Foot                                                                    $ 1,175

 

PENDINGs/BACKUPSs (P/B) (As of December 3, 2016)

 

            Total                                                                                                               41 Listings

            Median Price                                                                                                 $ 1,675,000

            Median CDOM                                                                                             104 Days

            Median Price per Square Foot                                                                    $ 838

 

SOLDs (November, 2016)   

 

            Total                                                                                                               29 Closings

            Total Requiring a Price Reduction                                                             25 Closings

            % of Closings at a Reduced Price                                                               86%

            Average Price Reduction                                                                             $ 207,472

            Average Price Reduction as a %                                                                 6.1 %

            Median Price                                                                                                 $ 1,900,000

            Median CDOM                                                                                             109 Days

            Median Price per Square Foot                                                                    $ 1,041

 

Total Supply of Actives at this Rate of Sales                                                          7.06 Months

Difference Between Active Median Price and P/B Median Price                                    + $ 1,220,000

Difference Between Active Median Price and Sold Median Price                       + $ 995,000

Difference Between P/B Median Price and Sold Median Price                            -  $ 225,000

 

More SOLDs (Most Recent 3 Full Months:  9/1/2016 – 11/30/2016)      

 

            Total                                                                                                               84 Closings

            Total Requiring a Price Reduction                                                             65 Closings

            Median Price                                                                                                 $ 1,850,000

            Median CDOM                                                                                             88 Days

            Median Price per Square Foot                                                                    $ 1,034

            Total Supply of Actives at this Rate of Sales                                              7.32 Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

More SOLDs Median Price History (Full Calendar Months)

 

            Month/Year         Median Price                    # of Sales                                

                               

Last 6 Full Months    $1,750,000                  190                                         

  (6/1/2016 – 11/30/2016)

Last 12 Full Months  $1,800,000                  374                                         

  (12/1/2015 – 11/30/2016)

 

More Median Price History (Full Calendar Years)

 

Year                       Median Price        # of Sales                            Year                       Median Price      # of Sales

 

2000                $   665,000        562                            2008                $1,535,000      204

2001                $   775,000        437                            2009                $1,185,000      274

2002                $   785,000        527                            2010                $1,200,000      334

2003                $   971,000        542                            2011                $1,100,000      329

2004                $1,275,000        514                            2012                $1,250,000      435

2005                $1,505,000        428                            2013                $1,525,000      422

2006                $1,625,000        322                            2014                $1,785,000      411

2007                $1,629,000        281                            2015                $1,700,000      384

 

           

Boyd Roberts is solely responsible for all content/statements/opinions/and conclusions.  He is a licensed broker, CA BRE #01354788, and is not a professional statistician or an economist.  All data has been taken from sources deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed and may be subject to compilation errors, data source errors, and statistically invalid data sample sizes.  All statistics/statements/opinions are not guaranteed, nor are they a forecast of higher or lower prices.  Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc.:  December 1, 2016 (active data) and December 3, 2016 (all other data). This information is for your personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose.  Pending/Backup prices are not necessarily the contract price, likely, they are the last active price before going into contract.  All days on market statistics are Combined Days On Market (CDOM).  CDOM is calculated by combining the active Days On Market (DOM) of listings separated by 90 days or less.

 

Boyd Roberts                949-463-9152                 Boyd.GalleryRE@gmail.com

 

 

Copyright 2016.  All Rights Reserved.  BRE #01354788

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